Drier weather, September temperatures

The essential

Our weather model remains fairly stagnant and stable. The forecast therefore contains very little change for the rest of the week. Of course, we will talk about the implications of an earth breeze. And there could be a few drops of rain on Wednesday and this weekend. And temperatures and humidity levels will slowly rise by the end of the week. Otherwise, quiet, comfortable and pleasant.

Tuesday

A big difference in Tuesday’s weather from Monday’s is the introduction of a prominent northeasterly breeze, blowing up to 20 mph. It’s in the “breezy” category. And the wind will lift the ocean a bit, which will cause choppy surf and rip current issues.

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Apart from that, we will do very well on Tuesday. Morning temperatures are in the 50s and 60s. (Almost 70 degrees along the coast, due to this ocean breeze.) High temperatures will reach around 80 degrees, being a few degrees below normal by mid- august.

On average, the sky will be partly sunny. And the humidity stays nice and low. The probability of a pop-up shower is very low, but not zero.

A light breeze will likely persist Tuesday evening, keeping the air choppy. Therefore, I expect to see more temps in the 60s rather than the 50s overnight. Most bottoms will dip to the low in the mid-60s.

Wednesday

There is a chance of rain in the forecast. But no washing or soaking. (In fact, those raindrops will be so insignificant that I even left the “rain” icon off my 5-day forecast.)

We will see mixed periods of sun and cloud throughout Wednesday. High temperatures will be similar to the rest of the week, in the lower 80s.

A few showers could cut New Jersey off from the north late in the day. The best chance will be the early evening hours, around dinner time. And, as you might guess, the raindrops are most likely in North Jersey. (Although some models are pushing showers and drizzle into central and even southern New Jersey.) Regardless, precipitation totals will be light — just a tenth of an inch, at most.

Thursday

Thursday is shaping up to be a beautiful summer day. Fairly sunny skies. High temperatures in the mid 80s. And a dew point no higher than 60.

We’ve talked a lot about drought and our ever-increasing need for heavy rainfall. But we can’t complain too much about the pleasant and “normal” summer weather.

Friday

By the end of the week, our weather is going to get noticeably warmer and stickier. But nothing extreme, like our previous heat waves.

Friday’s highs will reach around 85-90 degrees. Dew points will also hit the 60s, so it will be sticky (not necessarily scorching or tropical though). Abundant sunshine at the start of the day will give way to clouds at the end of the day. The day looks dry.

The weekend and beyond

I’ve had so much people are reaching out to ask about the chances of rain this weekend. As you know, I only post a 5-day forecast here. It’s deliberate. Beyond five days, the skill and accuracy of forecasts declines significantly. (And sometimes even that is overdone.)

The weekend is just beginning to focus better. And, unsurprisingly, the threat of soaking, leaching or drying out is very low. Latest model guidance suggests we will see some showers, centered on Saturday. But I think your plans are still intact for now.

We will be “watching the movement” of this storm system for the rest of the week, in case the rain becomes more heavy. For now, I’m seeing a mix of sun and cloud for Saturday and Sunday, with highs in the mid 80s or higher.

The next chance for heavy rain is now shifted to Monday-Tuesday next week. Remember part of New Jersey is now classified as ‘Severe Drought’ so we really need some heavy rain soon.

NJ WEATHER CENTER: Your forecast for 5 days and more

Dan Zarrow is chief meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook Where Twitter for the latest real-time weather forecasts and updates.

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