Elsa comes out, then the sun, then more thunderstorms

The bottom line

It’s been a crazy morning so far in the South and the Jersey Shore. Best numbers to date: over 2.5 inches of rain (Mullica Twp, Atlantic Co), wind gusts up to 79 mph (Sea Isle City, Cape May Co) and up to 3 possible tornadoes (Somers Point , Tuckerton and Mantoloking areas). Wow.

I believe Elsa briefly made landfall in Cape May County around 3 a.m. Friday morning. Starting at 5 a.m., the National Hurricane Center placed the traffic center just three miles east of Brigantine in Atlantic County.

Magnified view of Elsa’s predicted track as the tropical storm flies over the New Jersey coast on Friday. Morning. (NOAA / NHC)

Hope you can stay crouched and safe until the worst is done. Tropical storm warnings began to be canceled as they passed central Elsa. Flash flood monitoring remains in effect statewide.

Here is the best news I can give: Elsa is flying northeast. The weather will continue to vary from bad to bad until mid-morning on Friday. And then the conditions will improve rapidly until this afternoon. However, another series of thunderstorms is expected later.

The weekend presents mixed news: Saturday is shaping up to be good, while Sunday is once again unstable. Another scorching summer warm-up is scheduled for next week.

Friday: Departure from Elsa

As the stronger band of rain and wind continues to spread north and west, concerns about flash floods and power outages caused by the wind will also continue to spread.

Tropical Storm Elsa forecast updated at 5 a.m. Friday. The fast forward movement means the storm will come out quickly. (NOAA / NHC)

So far the forecast for precipitation has been very close to the forecast (1 to 3 inches for all except NW NJ). There are medium-scale models that show pockets of really heavy precipitation – in the order of 4 or 5 inches. We’ll have to see how it goes when the tropical rain band reaches central and northern NJ – the ground is quite saturated there, which could lead to problems with rapid flooding.

Wind speed and tornado potential were slightly higher than expected. It looks like the biggest threat of this type has passed at this point. Nonetheless, gusts over 40 mph will still be possible, and one or two more quick rotations cannot be ruled out.

Keep in mind that Elsa’s coastal impacts are minimal along the Jersey Shore. However, a high risk of reverse currents and choppy waves is displayed for today. And we could still see the tidal streams going up to a foot. (Some of these back bays have strange orientations, which can lead to unpredictable tides.)

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