Learn more about the debt limit

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Learn more about the debt limit – Your usual MM correspondent is about to disappear for a week’s vacation. And we’re still puzzled by the Democrats’ failure so far to simply add a debt ceiling increase to one of their spending bills. It could still happen, of course, but the logic behind not doing it quickly remains confusing.

Former Pennsylvania GOP Congressman Charlie Dent emails MM: “Your analysis of the debt ceiling is perfect. I voted for debt ceiling increases under Bush, Obama and Trump. If Democrats are prepared to vote for this disproportionately high level of spending on a partisan basis through reconciliation, why on earth would they be afraid to throw the debt ceiling into the same reconciliation bill?

“It is obvious to throw the debt ceiling into the reconciliation bill. The debt ceiling debate this time around is a big bluff and a fabricated crisis. There is no chance of default because the Democrats who control Washington would own the economic calamity. ”

America’s Changing Face – Via Paul Overberg and John McCormick of the WSJ: “The first detailed results of the 2020 census show a nation in the process of diversification where the total white population has declined for the first time in its history and where major metropolitan areas, particularly in the South and the South-West have seen the strongest growth.

“The non-Hispanic white population fell 2.6% between 2010 and 2020, a drop that puts this group’s share of the total US population below 60%. The number of people who identify with more than one race or ethnicity has grown at the fastest rate of any group, in part due to changes that have captured more detailed responses.

Real conversation – The United States is becoming less and less white and more and more urban and close to the suburbs. Small towns and rural areas continue to see their populations decline. Phoenix is ​​now the fifth largest city in the United States, replacing Philadelphia. Demographic changes tend to favor Democrats. But Republicans are working very hard to counter these changes with new, more restrictive election laws.

GOOD FRIDAY MORNING – I’m going to take a little break but you’ll be in good hands with Victoria Guida and the others next week. Email me on [email protected] and follow me on Twitter @morning money.

ECONOMISTS SEE TAPER ANNOUNCEMENT NEXT MONTH – Via Reuters: “The Federal Reserve will announce a plan to reduce its asset purchases in September, according to a solid majority of economists polled by Reuters who also said that the US unemployment rate will remain above its level of ‘before the pandemic for at least a year. . …

Almost two-thirds of those polled, 28 of 43, said the Fed is likely to announce a decrease in its asset purchases – currently pegged at $ 80 billion in treasury bills and $ 40 billion in MBS per month – at its September meeting. But while that moment has become more likely in the minds of many Fed watchers over the past month, it is by no means a done deal for everyone. ”

SCOTUS MEETS PART OF NY EVICTION BAN – Nos Josh Gerstein and Janaki Chadha: “The Supreme Court… issued an emergency order blocking New York State law to protect tenants from eviction during the coronavirus pandemic. The move, which came at the behest of the owners and following dissent from the three Democratic members of the tribunal, is another signal that virus-related eviction bans are under serious threat by the High Court.

“However, the significance of the new order for the ban that President Joe Biden’s administration reimposed last week under intense pressure from liberal activists is unclear as the legal bases for the challenges differ. … The majority of the court said New York’s law was likely unconstitutional because landlords had no way to challenge a tenant’s claim to have been hit hard by the pandemic.

CHILD TAX CREDITS REDUCING FOOD INSECURITY – Our Helena Bottemiller Evich: “The percentage of American families with children who report not having enough to eat has dropped dramatically after the first child tax credit payments were distributed last month, new data shows from the US Census Bureau.

“The government’s findings show that the monthly payments have a major and immediate impact on millions of households, potentially increasing … pressure from Biden to extend the tax credit beyond the end of this year, when he should expire. … Monthly payments of up to $ 300 for each child under five and up to $ 250 for each child under 18 are the result of one of the most sweeping provisions of the US bailout, although the policy didn’t get much media attention at the time. . ”

ANITA DUNN LEAVING THE WHITE HOUSE – Our Myah Ward: “Anita Dunn, Biden’s best advisor, will be leaving the White House … at the end of her temporary position, although she will still play a key role as … Biden’s external advisor – in the same way she does. ‘she served during the Obama years.

“Dunn told POLITICO his time in the White House ends Thursday.

ASIA FALLS AFTER WALL STREET RECORDS – Via Bloomberg: “Most Asian stocks slipped on Friday as the spread of the Covid-19 delta variant and regulatory restrictions from China restrained sentiment despite another record close on Wall Street. The tech sector led losses on a fall in Chinese internet giants and a pullback by chipmakers that hurt South Korean stocks.

US equity futures were flat after the S&P 500 hit a new high and the tech-rich Nasdaq 100 rose. Airbnb Inc. slipped into extended trading on a difficult outlook due to the virus, while an increase in streaming demand boosted Walt Disney Co. 10-year US Treasury yields were near a one-month high after a lukewarm 30-year auction and the highlighting data pressure on prices and a recovery in the labor market.A dollar gauge contained an advance.

THE LEFT WARNS DEMS NOT TO REDUCE THE INVOICE BY $ 3.5 T – Our Laura Barrón-López: “One of DC’s most powerful Democratic-allied groups warns party members they risk leaving female voters behind if they don’t support … Biden’s social spending program . … The Center for American Progress is pressing Democratic lawmakers to make the $ 3.5 trillion reconciliation plan as close as possible to its original plan, arguing that it is vital to helping working women hard-hit by the pandemic.

“The mere act of passing an infrastructure bill,” the group warns, “would create a massive gender gap in economic recovery.” … CAP’s push comes as Biden ramps up promotion of its Build Back Better program, which is expected to include funding for workers in senior and child care – areas dominated by women.

HOUSING PRICES INCREASE – Nicole Friedman of the WSJ: “Home prices jumped in almost every corner of the United States in the second quarter as strong demand continued to overwhelm the supply of homes for sale. While the home buying frenzy has shown signs of abating in recent months, home price growth has yet to slow.

“The median selling price of existing single-family homes was higher in the second quarter compared to a year ago for 182 of the 183 metropolitan areas tracked by the National Association of Realtors, the association said Thursday. In 94% of those Metropolitan areas, median prices increased more than 10% from the previous year. Across the country, the median selling price of existing single-family homes increased 22.9% in the second quarter to reach $ 357,900 compared to a year ago, a record high in data dating back to 1968, NAR said.

WARREN ON THE TAX SYSTEM – Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) In an editorial by Wash. Post: “Now that the Senate has passed a budget resolution, we are one step closer to realizing… Biden’s transformation agenda… The other half of the package – how to pay for these investments – is just as important.

“The already huge gap between 0.1% and everyone is only widening. …
I have proposed measures that would generate more than $ 5,000 billion in revenue – far more than what we need to implement the Biden plan. While not all Democrats agree with my every idea, Biden has campaigned aggressively on a series of progressive tax policies and voters passed those changes at the ballot box. No matter how much else Washington lobbyists bleat, progressive tax policies are hugely popular. “

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