NJ poised to enter above normal Atlantic hurricane season peak
Although it was only a tropical storm by the time its track reached New Jersey in early July, the system known as Elsa was the fifth named storm during the hurricane season of the ‘Atlantic 2021 and marked the first recorded date for which the fifth storm turned into a storm. hurricane.
Against this backdrop, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released a revised seasonal forecast on Wednesday.
“August through October marks the peak months of the hurricane season, and although the tropics have been relatively slow in recent weeks, NOAA forecasters predict that a busy hurricane season is yet to come,” said Rosencrans.
According to the NOAA forecast, there is now a 65% chance this season will be above normal, down from 60% in the initial May outlook.
That includes 15 to 21 named storms, including seven to 10 that NOAA predicts will become hurricanes (Elsa is already among that total), with three to five ultimately classified as major.
Yet 2021 is still not expected to be as busy as 2020 has been in the Atlantic. Wednesday marked the first anniversary of Tropical Storm Isaias passing through New Jersey.
“Sea surface temperatures are closer to average in the main Atlantic developing region, which contributes to our analysis that this season, while likely above average, is unlikely to be as active. than last year, ”said Rosencrans.
Townsquare New Jersey chief meteorologist Dan Zarrow endorsed NOAA’s assessment of air and ocean temperatures, saying climatologically, the season’s average peak is the September 10, “So there is still a long way to go.”
“To date, there are two disorganized tropical waves that the hurricane center is tracking for possible development,” Zarrow said, noting that the next named storm would be Fred.
Zarrow and Rosencrans were also in phase on one point regarding the number of forecast storms: When evaluating the season as a whole, the total number of storms doesn’t really matter.
“No matter what activity is planned, it only takes one storm to have catastrophic impacts on lives and communities,” said Rosencrans. “Everyone should know their hurricane risk, have a plan and be prepared for the heart of the season ahead.”
Rosencrans also had a message for residents of coastal states that are smaller in area and therefore closer to the Atlantic Ocean – such as, for example, New Jersey, which has traditionally experienced the impacts of tropical systems across the country. the state, not just on the Jersey Shore.
“Residents of inland flood prone areas should join their coastal neighbors in staying tuned to the National Hurricane Center for the latest watches and warnings throughout the season,” he said.
NOAA has set November 30 as the end date for the six-month Atlantic hurricane season.
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