Will Harley-Davidson’s first quarter results disappoint?

Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) is due to release its results for the first quarter of fiscal 2021 on Tuesday, April 20. We expect the HOG to miss consensus estimates for both revenue and profit. The company missed consensus earnings estimates for three of the past four quarters and missed earnings estimates for two of the past four quarters. In recent years, the company has experienced a continuous decline in sales volume which increased in 2020 due to the pandemic. In 2021, we expect the company’s volume to grow after a 30% drop in sales volume the previous year.

Our forecast indicates that Harley-Davidson Rating is around $ 41 per share, which is the current market price of around $ 41. Check out our interactive dashboard analysis at Harley-Davidson Pre-Profits: What to Expect in Q1? for more details.

(1) Expected revenue lower than consensus estimates in Q1

Trefis estimates HOG’s first quarter 2021 tax revenue to be around $ 1.17 billion, down 6% from the consensus estimate of $ 1.24 billion. HOG’s revenue of $ 4.1 billion for the full year of 2020 was much lower than in 2019, as the auto industry has been one of the hardest hit by the pandemic. The company also abandoned its activities in India through its new strategy “The Rewire” by deciding to focus on the 50 most profitable markets. Overall, for fiscal 2021, we forecast revenue of around $ 5 billion. Our dashboard on Harley-Davidson revenues offers more details on the business segments.

(2) EPS likely to be lower than consensus estimates

HOG’s earnings per share in the first quarter of 2021 is expected to be $ 0.40 per Trefis analysis, lower than the consensus estimate of $ 0.87. The company’s net profit margin fell sharply in 2020 due to the pandemic. This reduced EPS from $ 2.68 to $ 0.01. The lifting of lockdowns and the steady growth in the vaccination rate have contributed to a recovery in demand in all sectors. In total, the company is expected to post EPS of around $ 1.27 in fiscal 2021.

(3) Estimate of the share price in line with the current market price

Through our Harley-Davidson Rating, with an EPS estimate of around $ 1.27 and a P / E multiple of just over 32x in fiscal 2021, results in a price of $ 41, which is in line with the price of the current market of around $ 41.

Note: P / E multiples are based on the stock price at the end of the year and reported (or expected) adjusted earnings for the entire year

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