Data experts predict Championship final table – Bournemouth’s serene end and trends to continue
Ahead of their home game against Middlesbrough, where they sat in second place and 73 points, results from the previous five seasons indicated Bournemouth could possibly pick up as few as eight more points while crossing the line.
At the time, DorsetLive says the following:
“The results show that the cumulative average of the top six teams in their last seven matches of the season is 13 points. Bournemouth should therefore aim for 86 points to be their winning barrier of points promotion. This would ward off the threat from Nottingham Forest whether or not they maintain their form push into 2022.”
After Forest’s failure at Luton on Good Friday and Bournemouth taking four points from the six available since, these past trends are likely to continue.
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With five games to go for Bournemouth and Forest, who have both played two games less than promotion rivals Huddersfield and Luton, data experts from FiveThirtyEight calculated the numbers and predicted how the rest of the Championship season will unfold.
Given that Parker’s men now have a seven-point lead over Forest and games less of the others, they should finish in second place behind eventual champions Fulham. The metrics calculate Bournemouth will pick up eight more points, finishing their campaign on 85 points – seven more than Forest and Huddersfield, who are separated only by goal difference.
Essentially, FiveThirtyEight expect Bournemouth to have a relatively serene conclusion and in doing so have their top-flight status secured ahead of the final game against Millwall on May 7.
Bournemouth are currently nine points behind Fulham in second place, but maintain a healthy lead ahead of Huddersfield in third. Parker’s men, with 77 points, need nine more to secure Premier League status next year.
FiveThirtyEight’s top six predictions:
1st – Fulham (92 points)
2nd – AFC Bournemouth (85 points)
3rd – Nottingham Forest (78 points)
4th – Huddersfield Town (78 points)
5th – Town of Luton (75 points)
6th – Sheffield United (6th)
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