Marmot ? Here’s the Real East Texas prediction for 6 more weeks

The groundhog is cute and all, but…

Punxsutawney Phil can be furry, cuddly, and charming (as far as rodents go), but boy isn’t great at forecasting accuracy. When it comes to his winter prognosis powers, that old groundhog should stick to throwing wood, if he could throw wood.

According to research on his 100+ weather forecasts, Phil was on the right track only 39% of the time. That equates to a great batting average in baseball, but not so much if you’re a glorified bucktooth beaver trying to be the next Jim Cantore.

Not to mention he is based in Pennsylvania. It’s like 8 states, 5 major rivers and 2 East Texas coal mines. We don’t have the same climate.

What is the official long-term forecast for East Texas?

Let’s start with the month of February. So far, the beginning of the month has been rainy and very cold. However, meteorologists from Climate Prediction Center apparently do not see their shadows.

Climate Prediction Center/NOAA

Climate Prediction Center/NOAA

For the next four weeks, our temperatures in the Pineywoods are expected to be above or likely above normal. That means we should see quite a bit of 60s and 70s for the highs in February.

Take that, you stupid rodent!

Climate Prediction Center/NOAA

Climate Prediction Center/NOAA

I’m not so thrilled with the map above, though. We have been very wet since the start of 2023, and it looks like we will continue to lean in that direction in the Deep East Texas. Then again, Pennsylvania too.

What about the next three months?

Punxsutawney Phil’s lineup only lasts six weeks. Let’s take a look at what our non-groundhogs are saying about the next three months for East Texas.

Climate Prediction Center/NOAA

Climate Prediction Center/NOAA

Looks like we can expect our temperatures to be above normal for the latter part of winter and early spring. I know I’ll probably ask for freezing weather when August rolls around, but right now bring the heat.

Climate Prediction Center/NOAA

Climate Prediction Center/NOAA

It looks like we will have our normal amount of precipitation for the next 3 month period. Since the previous map showed a wet February, I guess the rains should ease for March and April.

The accuracy of long-term forecasts

The more you try to predict something, the less accurate you’ll be (unless you’re predicting the likelihood of the Dallas Cowboys going to the Super Bowl with Jerry Jones at the helm). Sorry, I’ve been living this nightmare for about 3 decades.

Thus, the above maps and coincident forecasts are not necessarily very reliable. However, I’d rather trust these than a hairy groundhog that lives in a tree in a place called Gobbler’s Knob.

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