Super Bowl 2022 odds: How important are the Rams’ home-court advantage?
Before 2020, never in NFL the story had a team played for the Super Bowl on its home turf. Then in Super Bowl LV, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers changed that by playing at home on Raymond James Field. The Bucs defeated the Kansas City Chiefs 31-9. From a betting perspective, the home team won outright (SU) and covered the number against the spread (ATS).
The Los Angeles Rams are hoping to follow in Tampa Bay’s footsteps against the Cincinnati Bengals as they host Super Bowl LVI at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif., on February 13.
From a game perspective, it seems obvious that a team would rather play at home than on the road. For decades, when it comes to betting, bettors have estimated the NFL’s home-court advantage to be worth around three points. Simply put: two teams considered equal on neutral ground would be the 3-point favorites in their respective stadiums. This number has gotten smaller and smaller over the years, but usually has an advantage, no matter how small.
Nevertheless, it’s not a typical home team. For starters, the Rams have only played at this stadium since the 2020 NFL season. And yes, even though it is a home field, they also share it with the Los Angeles Chargers.
Second, as we saw against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 18 and the Conference Championship, SoFi can feel like a road crowd for these Rams at times. SF fans apparently outnumbered residence fans even though the Rams were playing for a Super Bowl berth!
While Los Angeles came out of it spectacularly – erasing a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter – the question remains; how valuable is the home court for this season’s NFC winner?
We asked FOX Bet Trader Steven Hemke for his thoughts:
“Super Bowl tickets are distributed differently for the Super Bowl. We don’t expect much, if any, home-court advantage when it comes to Rams fans in actual seats. Usually 35% is split between the two teams. and the rest of the teams in the league also receive a percentage.
“That being said, similar to the NFC title game, we can expect both teams to be fairly evenly split with maybe a few more Rams fans due to proximity,” explained the bettor.
And what impact does this have on the point spread?
“As for the spread, maybe -1 or -1.5 in this case because of the familiarities and travel advantages the Rams will enjoy,” Hemke said.
So this is it. The gap could be worth up to -1.5 points for the Rams playing at home. If the two teams are considered equal, this may explain the current line of Rams -4. However, it should be noted that while the Rams are 7-3 SU at home this season, Los Angeles is only 5-5 ATS. Plus, the Bengals have relaxed on the road like they’re at an Airbnb, going 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS away from home this season.
So which team are you going to throw a few dollars at to win the Lombardi Trophy in Los Angeles? Whenever you’re ready, get in on the betting action right now at FOX bet!
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