VSall that what you want – Hot Vax Summer 2.0, the Hot Vax Summer Redux – but you may be feeling it: a new phase of the pandemic is beginning. With restrictions lifted in the most COVID-cautious U.S. jurisdictions, international travel resuming, and major live events returning to U.S. cities, summer 2022 is poised to deliver a version of normalcy even if (when?) a new variant emerges. Millions of Americans can’t wait.
Although some Republican-led states like Florida dropped all restrictions in fall 2020, governors of blue states in the northeast rolled out their plans to end the restrictions in early February this year. California and New York followed suit, and this month the CDC caught up. Now over 90 percent of Americans live in places where indoor masking isn’t required — and people like CDC Director Rochelle Walensky feel confident enough to advise Americans to “put your masks in a drawer, anticipate that you might need it again and hope we don’t”.
Daily case counts have dropped dramatically in cities hard hit by Omicron, including New York (down 98% since its peak in early January), Los Angeles (down 98%), and Washington, D.C. (down 99%). “While the much-hyped ‘hot vax summer’ of 2021 has not materialized…maybe this time we can enjoy a ‘hot vax spring,'” Leana Wen, former health commissioner of Baltimore and vocal critic of the continued restrictions, wrote in an editorial last month.
This spring begins. The Super Bowl was as full as ever this year; Lady Gaga and Dua Lipa are on tour again. Half of Americans Report Their Credit Card Spending Habits are back to pre-pandemic levels. The International Air Travel Association expects global air travel to return to 83 percent pre-pandemic levels this year, and recover to 94% of pre-crisis levels in the United States. Dating app executives talk again about the possibility of a “summer of love,” and living with the virus is the new sentence of the day.
But we’ve been here before, and hearing someone say that Omicron could be “the last real big push of SARS-CoV-2” triggers flashbacks to the vax hot summer that wasn’t. Nearly a year ago, states ramped up their use of mass vaccination sites and began expanding vaccine eligibility based on age and risk factors. As America’s most vaccine-savvy Americans raced to find a shot, the hype began to build for a COVID-free summer. You may remember the memes (Megan Thee Stallion’s 2019 song “Hot Girl Summer” morphed into “shot girl summer”), the mantras (“vaxxed and waxed”), and references to the Roaring Twenties. Then came May, when the CDC decided that enough people had been vaccinated and viral transmission was low enough for those who were immunized to drop their masks.
Of course, the Delta variant spoiled the fun right after July 4th. But according to a recent Atlantic/ Leger poll, Hot Vax Summer 1.0 may not have been as bad as people remember – and Americans seem optimistic about their chance of having an even better summer this year. A majority of Americans polled early last month said last summer met some or all of their expectations. This opinion was strongest among the most cautious people – those vaccinated and boosted – among whom 61% remembered the hot summer vax favorably. These people also look forward to eating, partying, and socializing indoors even more frequently; more than 40% plan to travel within the country.
Tina Castillo is one of this cohort. Triple vaxxed and exhausted by pandemic restrictions, the 31-year-old recalls trips to the beach with friends, isolated stays on Airbnb and nights out at rooftop bars in the summer of 2021. “It was fun , but that’s nothing like who I am. do this summer,” she told me. His job sends him to Germany in the spring and his friends are planning a June trip to London to see Elton John perform in Hyde Park. She knows she’ll have to be more outgoing to make new friends in a new country and plans to start with outdoor lunches before venturing into German nightlife.
She also remembers the confusion of December 2021. As government officials talked about the possibility of a new coronavirus outbreak and news reports floated word of a new variant, she wondered if the virus that had cut short her summer hopes would ruin his vacation trip. in Costa Rica. Castillo had planned to ring in the New Year abroad – she hadn’t traveled abroad since the start of the pandemic and had planned an itinerary when there was still hope the pandemic would end independence day. Then just about everyone seemed to have COVID.
She weighed the risk, debated staying home, and decided to go on the trip anyway. Since she worked in a healthcare facility and saw patients frequently, she tested herself regularly. A few more tests would not be a disadvantage. She took one before entering Costa Rica and another before returning to suburban DC. Everything was fine and she remains COVID-free.
The appeal of summer is even stronger for young people who feel they have missed great moments of early adulthood. Andrew, a 24-year-old living in Brooklyn, told me he was quitting his job as a production assistant this summer and traveling through France, Spain, Portugal and the UK with a group of high school friends. (He asked me to use his first name only because his company doesn’t know he is planning to quit). “It’s like the trip we wanted to take after college in a COVID-free world, and it’s been delayed until now. We’re all excited to quit our first jobs after college, pack our bags and moving from New York and traveling through Europe all summer,” he said. “I’ll be 25 in August, so I’m kind of like, Really, this is my shot.”
Andrew’s main pandemic year was isolated: he completed his studies remotely, waited tables and did freelance work for most of 2020 when the job market was still chaotic. Life has improved in 2021. He was able to travel to the UK for his sister’s wedding in the summer, quarantined before seeing his parents for Christmas and returned to a New Year’s Eve party during peak summer. ‘Omicron. This year he doesn’t know what will happen after his trip to Europe – he has saved some money and could move to Los Angeles or choose somewhere in Western Europe, but he welcomes the uncertainty. “Getting a degree in COVID has been such a hustle, like, I need to find a job. I need to find some stability. And now I feel like I’m at a place where I’m confident that I can throw off that stability and confident that I can find another opportunity,” he said.
The willingness to take risks is the common thread in my conversations with young people eager for a return to “normal”. They recognized the degree of privilege inherent in being able to do these movements – and to be healthy and well after two years of living with a terminal illness. These people have developed individualized ways to examine the risks and determine the threat of COVID in the vacuum of clear public health messaging and government guidance. In the United States, more than 1,500 people still die from the virus every day. But for many young people, it seems like everyone they know who is their age has been sick with the virus but rebounded days later. The pandemic may not be over – it’s certainly not for immunocompromised people, children under 5, the elderly and people who are still unvaccinated – but for the majority of people in individual level, this is the case.
When we spoke, Castillo had just returned from another trip, this time to a remote resort town in Guatemala. Before moving to Germany, she planned another DC event: Puerto Rican rapper and singer Bad Bunny’s El Ultimo Tour del Mundo, “The Last Around the World”. She bought the tickets as vax’s first hot summer began. It will now be present when the second takes off.
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