A revived Weimar Triangle would be a political boon for the EU in the context of Ukraine’s courageous fight against Russia, as it would tackle several political problems in one, writes Marcin Korolec.
Marcin Korolec was Poland’s environment minister from 2011 to 2013 and trade minister from 2005 to 2011.
In early April, as the Kremlin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine entered its third month, French President Emmanuel Macron urged the European Union to ban Russian oil and ran into German opposition. A few days after Macron’s re-election on April 24, Germany announced the imminent end of its dependence on Russian oil with the help of Poland, bringing an EU embargo closer.
France, Germany and Poland should broadly align their responses to Russia’s cruel and reckless attack. This would help the EU address the enormous economic and social challenges resulting from the greatest threat to Europe’s security since the Cold War.
Three priorities deserve the attention of Paris, Berlin and Warsaw.
The first is the halt to EU-wide purchases of oil from Russia, where President Vladimir Putin relies on such shipments for tens of billions of euros in revenue that fuels his military aggression. The second is rebuilding Ukraine, with a focus on a green recovery. And the third is the acceleration of the use of renewable energies within the EU.
Such a commitment to cooperation from the three capitals would give life to the “Weimar Triangle”, the loose alliance created in 1991 to help Poland emerge from communism. The three-member group then turned its attention – with varying effect – to a joint battlegroup initiative in 2011, Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the Brexit and migration crises in 2016.
A revived Weimar Triangle would be a political boon for the EU27 in the context of Ukraine’s courageous struggle against Russia. Indeed, France, Germany and Poland place many EU policy dilemmas and solutions under the same spotlight.
France is relatively free of Russian fossil fuels, signaling the energy security needed across the EU. Germany, which rushed to wean itself off Russian oil, must now do the same on natural gas. And Poland, which relies heavily on coal for electricity, suddenly has a new perspective on the promise of renewables.
In addition to these economic elements, there are notable political factors.
France holds the rotating EU presidency and has a head of state with a new mandate to help steer European affairs. Germany, still at the start of the post-Angela Merkel era, has a three-party government whose own deals could help foster an EU-wide consensus. And Poland has led the way in showing solidarity with Ukraine, including welcoming more than 2 million Ukrainians who have fled the war.
Top of the EU’s to-do list is a ban on Russian oil imports, which last year accounted for the bulk of the bloc’s 99 billion euros ($106 billion) energy imports in originating from Russia.
While the European Commission proposed in early May to end such purchases by the end of the year, Hungary is spearheading opposition from a small group of landlocked member countries concerned about alternative sources. adequate oil.
A concerted leadership of France, Germany and Poland, starting from the European summit of May 30 and 31, could help forge an agreement. EU sanctions require the approval of all member governments, giving each – including Budapest – a veto over the proposed oil embargo against Russia.
The reconstruction of Ukraine will require even more political attention from the EU. In late April, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said the cost would be at least $600 billion.
The EU is the logical partner to guide Ukraine’s recovery. As well as receiving a recent membership offer from Kyiv, the bloc has provided aid to meet Ukraine’s immediate needs, removed tariffs on the country’s goods to support trade and pledged a trust fund of Ukrainian solidarity to help with the reconstruction.
Again, unity between Paris, Berlin and Warsaw would facilitate EU-wide deliberations, notoriously sensitive when it comes to budgetary decisions.
Germany’s views tend to mirror those of the group of mainly northern nations that have a tough stance on EU spending. Poland’s position generally mirrors that of other net recipients of EU funding. And France often plays a bridge role.
A consensus between the three capitals on future European financial support for Ukraine would also help draw attention to the many green opportunities that will emerge in the country’s reconstruction.
The third issue requiring Weimar Triangle leadership is the EU Green Deal. The bloc has been focusing for months on a set of EU bills intended to accelerate the transition to clean energy, including through a more ambitious renewable energy target for 2030.
So far, France, Germany and Poland have shown more division than unity over the legislative initiative, dubbed ‘Fit for 55’ after the EU’s goal to cut greenhouse gas emissions greenhouse by 55% in 2030 compared to 1990 levels.
A Weimar-Triangle consensus on key ‘Fit for 55’ proposals would speed up a comprehensive EU deal, which requires the support of national governments and the European Parliament.
The EU has overcome a decade of crises – dating back to the bankruptcy of Greece – thanks to opportune alliances between certain member states. The latest crisis is the most important and calls for a rejuvenated Weimar Triangle.
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